莫桑比克有望成为全球十大液化天然气供应商之一

莫桑比克有望成为全球十大液化天然气供应商之一

据Globaldata称,到20世纪20年代中期,莫桑比克有望成为世界十大液化天然气生产国之一,届时将有超过3000万吨的液化天然气投产,与非洲领导人尼日利亚和阿尔及利亚的产能相当。

液化天然气项目的原料气将来自超深水Rovuma盆地,目前已发现超过125万亿ft3的可采天然气资源。这包括1区75万亿ft3和4区50万亿ft3。1区和4区的参与者现在正在为陆上液化天然气接收站的最终投资决策(FID)做准备。

Globaldata石油和天然气分析师曹柴(音)表示:“莫桑比克陆上液化天然气项目的开发收支平衡天然气价格约为每千立方英尺4-5美元,与目前日本每千立方英尺9.24美元的现货液化天然气价格相比具有竞争力。这是因为与全球其他液化天然气综合项目相比,预计每百万吨年的资本支出相对较低,与美洲的非综合液化天然气项目相比,上游成本较低。”

莫桑比克国内外的困境减缓了该国液化天然气发展的进程。然而,到2019年为止,莫桑比克和Rovuma液化天然气参与者的大部分活动都是获得额外的天然气销售和购买协议等积极迹象。这些合同是项目进展到建设阶段的一个关键部分,因为它们提供了未来收入的一些确定性,以支持将这些设施联网所需的近400亿美元的大规模资本支出。

Chai总结道:“莫桑比克液化天然气业务的发展将使该国成为全球主要液化天然气供应商。它还将为莫桑比克政府带来直接收入,并通过初始项目和后续扩建的国内天然气部分促进当地工业的增长。此外,液化天然气大型项目的建设预计将持续十多年,为莫桑比克人提供了大量的就业和培训机会。”

Mozambique expected to become a top 10 global LNG supplier

According to GlobalData, Mozambique is expected to become one of the world's top 10 largest LNG producers by the mid-2020s, when over 30 million tpy of LNG comes on stream, on a par with capacity in African leaders Nigeria and Algeria.

The feed gas for new LNG projects will come from the ultra-deepwater Rovuma Basin, where over 125 trillion ft3 of recoverable natural gas resources have been discovered to date. This consists of 75 trillion ft3 in block Area 1 and 50 trillion ft3 in block Area 4. Participants in Area 1 and 4 are now progressing towards final investment decisions (FID) for the onshore LNG terminals.

Cao Chai, Oil and Gas Analyst at GlobalData, says: “The development break-even gas price of around US$4-5 per thousand ft3 for the onshore LNG projects in Mozambique is competitive compared to current Japan spot LNG prices of US$9.24 per thousand ft3. This is due to the relatively low expected CAPEX per million tpy in comparison to other integrated LNG projects around the world, and the low upstream cost compared to non-integrated LNG projects in the Americas.”

Both external and internal Mozambique-specific challenges have slowed progression of LNG developments in the country. However, positive signs such as securing additional gas sales and purchase agreements have formed the majority of the activity from Mozambique and Rovuma LNG participants so far in 2019. These contracts are a key part of the projects progression towards the construction phase, as they provide some certainty about future revenues to underpin the massive capex of nearly US$40 billion required to bring these facilities online.

Chai concludes: “The advancement of LNG business in Mozambique will transform the country to a major global LNG supplier. It will also bring direct revenue to Mozambique government and promote the growth of local industries through a domestic gas component of the initial project and follow-on expansions. Furthermore, construction on the LNG megaprojects is expected to last for over a decade providing significant employment and training opportunities for Mozambicans.”